YOUR ODDS

ODDS OF WINNING A BIG PRIZE OR ANY PRIZE
The odds of winning a prize in a gambling game vary according to many factors, like the number of prizes, the type of game, the size of the prize and so on. The laws of probability are such that in most games you’ll always have to bet more over time to win a major prize than the actual prize is worth. You might win small prizes like a $5 scratchie win, but how much have you already paid for the win? (And do you keep the prize or buy another ticket?)
A good example is a poker machine:
Poker machines vary in the odds they offer of winning a big prize. In Tasmania the odds of winning a prize can be up to but not more than 7 million to one.
For example on a poker machine with 5 reels, where two reels have 50 stop combinations each, two reels have 15 stop combinations each, and one reel has 10 stop combinations, the odds of winning a big prize are 50x50x15x15x10=5,625,000.
Imagine that many grains of sand on a beach. The chance of you winning the jackpot is the same as randomly picking up one ‘winning’ grain of sand from that beach.
You could push the button 7 million times before you win the jackpot. If the jackpot is $5,000 you can see that you’re not likely to get your money back over time, even if you do win the big prize
Have a look at the information on this site to see how the odds work in other forms of gambling. This information is about winning the big prizes. Small prizes are paid out more often and are also bound by the laws of probability…
THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY
The Gamblers Fallacy is the belief held by lots of gamblers that an event (like a win on a poker machine) can be “due” to happen. Wrong!
For example, some people think that if one colour in roulette, say red, has won many times in a row then black is ‘due’ to win. This is incorrect. It doesn’t matter how many times in a row red has won, the odds of black winning on the next spin will always be the same.
It’s the same when tossing a coin.  Say you toss a coin and heads comes up ten times in a row. What is the chance of the next toss being a tail? The same as it always is: 50%. Some people think in this situation that it’s more likely that tails will come up, that tails are ‘due’. But they are wrong!
Wikipedia defines the Gambler’s Fallacy as:
“… the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future…In situations where what is being observed is truly random… this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.”

House Edge

ABOUT THE HOUSE EDGE
The House Edge is a term used to describe the mathematical advantage that the gambling game, and therefore the commercial gambling venue, has over you as you play over time. This advantage results in an assured percentage return to the venue over time, and for you an assured percentage loss of what you bet.
It’s important that people don’t think that they can win, because you can’t win in gambling. You can win for a little while but you can’t win in the long run.” – Michael Piggot, spokesman for Tabcorp, one of Australia’s largest betting agencies, on the National 9 News, September 2005.
The House Edge assists the gambling provider as a commercial business to cover its costs of providing the game, paying for the staff, maintaining the casino or club etc. It also helps to turn the business a profit. Any profit the business makes from gambling comes from the money the gamblers pay into the game, whether it’s a poker machine, Keno, Blackjack or other game.
For example the House Edge built into a poker machine in Tasmania means that on average around 10% of every bet you make, that is, every time you press the button, goes back to the venue. In Tasmania the law actually sets the amount that the venue can keep (its House Edge) as 15%, but the venues, through the suppliers of poker machines, Network Gaming, have opted for around 10%.
How does it work? In poker machines there is a mechanism called a Random Number Generator. It’s actually a computer and it’s programmed to select the combinations of symbols – at random – when you press the button. On a poker machine with five reels and thirty-five possible stops on each reel there are 52,521,875 possible stop combinations. The Random Number Generator is programmed so that there will be  more losses (losing combinations of symbols) than wins.

An easy way to think about it is with a roulette wheel. On a single zero roulette wheel there are 36 numbers plus the green zero. When the wheel is spinning the ball can stop on any one of the 36 numbers or the zero: 37 possible stops. Therefore the mathematical odds of you choosing one of those possible stops is 1 in 37. But… the house pay outs are set at 35 to 1. So over time, the house will never lose. They have a 2.7% house edge.

The house edge is in every form of commercial gambling and means that the more you play over time, the more you will lose.

You may get lucky in the short term and be ahead but if you keep playing, eventually you will lose.